While job-creation has reversed a downward trend in employment, there has been no notable gain in population, the report said."

"Thus, the population of the market area is deemed to be stable at best, and at worst, it is stagnant."

The US-77 market area as defined in the report includes Arkansas City, Winfield and their immediate environs, as well as the highway corridor between them. Much of the demographics and other data used is for all of Cowley County.

The corridor study was conducted by HNTB for the two cities and the county.

The Kansas Department of Transportation (KDOT) is a partner in the management plan.

The relatively bullish retail prospects in the report arise from what the consultants found was the significant portion of retail spending by local residents that "leaks" to other markets.

The effective buying income of households in the US-77 market area is $40,612 -- about $7,000 less than in Kansas as a whole. Of residents' buying income, only 84 cents of every dollar is being spent locally, according to the report.

This leaves a sizeable "retail opportunity gap."

That gap justifies a maximum of 15 additional stores and 205,000 additional square feet of retail space, the consultants found. Opportunities are greatest in food service, clothing and home furnishings, according to the report.

There is a place in the market for one new store that sells building materials and garden equipment, the report said. This gap can best be filled not by a full-scale store like a Lowe's, but rather by a smaller store like a Sutherlands.

The report noted Cowley County had few national brand-name stores. When it came to new eating and drinking establishments, the report found room for two new full-service restaurants.

Applebees and Panera were suggested as possibilities.

Six new clothing stores might be justified by the gap in that category, according to the report."The retail opportunity gap analysis indicates that the market could potentially support at least one larger clothing store, a shoe store, a men's clothing store as well, or, perhaps (an) expanded Penny's store."

The report generally encouraged the expansion of existing businesses and other employers rather than seeking new ones.

The best areas for retail growth are north Arkansas City and south Winfield, the report found. "Either a large single use or a small community shopping center could be constructed in each or either location."

A third option is to build a community shopping center south of Strother Field next to Cowley Cinema 8. It would be important to have an anchor store there, a restaurant and a mix of other stores, the report said.

The report cautioned against seeking commercial or residential growth in areas not served by utilities, such as those between south Winfield and Strother Field and the area south of Arkansas City near the Oklahoma border. Overall housing stock in the county is "somewhat dated," according to the report, with an occupancy rate of 87.7 percent. Rentors occupy 35.1 percent of the housing in the county, the consultants found.

With no population growth, the report estimates 25 new homes annually would be constructed. With modest population growth that number would be considerably higher.

"There appears to be pent-up demand for single-family and multi-family housing because so little has been constructed for so many decades," the report said. It noted exceptions in newer subdivisions of both Arkansas City and Winfield.

The report saw prospects for growth in office and institutional space within the US-77 corridor.

Over 25 percent of workers in Cowley County are employed in the education, health and social service fields. The report encouraged expansion of office and institutional space adjacent to existing development such as in north Arkansas City or south Winfield.

Cowley County has a much higher percentage of industrial employees than the nation as a whole. The manufacturing sector employs 23 percent of workers in Cowley County compared with 14 percent nationwide, the report said.

Among those workers who commute to other areas for their jobs, 64 percent travel to Sedgwick County. Among those who commute into Cowley County for their jobs, 27 percent come from Sumner County and 28 percent from Oklahoma.

Industrial expansion should take place at Strother Field and at designated industrial parks such as the Goff Industrial Park at Arkansas City, the Winfield Industrial Park and Utt Business/Industrial Park east of Winfield.

The market analysis found the largest employers in Cowley County to be:

* General Electric 830

* Creekstone Farms 620

* USD 465 618

* Newell Rubbermaid 900

* USD 470 400

* Winfield Correctional Facility 300

* William Newton Hospital 226

* Calmar 210

* City of Winfield 196

* Southwestern College 195

The analysis includes secondary data from Clarita, Inc., which provided census data, demographic estimates and various retail detail; the U. S Census Bureau; the U. S. Department of Labor; the Kansas Department of Labor and a Survey of Buying Power by Sales & Marketing Management, Inc.