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Monday, February 11, 2008
In GOP-leaning Kansas, Dems had the bigger caucuses
By THE ASSOCAITED PRESS
TOPEKA, Kan. (AP) -- Republicans easily outnumber Democrats among Kansas voters, and both parties usually assume the GOP nominee won't have much trouble carrying the state in a presidential race. No Democrat has won since 1964.
Democrats had their presidential caucuses Tuesday night when, some of them grumbled, night-shift workers wouldn't be able to participate. Republicans picked Saturday morning, late enough that anyone could sleep in a little.
Even the mercurial Kansas weather favored the GOP. Democrats braved packed snow on tricky roads, blowing snow in the air and wintry winds. Republicans had a clear and -- for winter, anyway -- balmy day.
Officials in both parties talked about the large crowds they would draw and the excitement over competitive presidential races. But Democrats drew about 37,000 people to their caucuses, while Republicans attracted about 20,000.
It was a disparity that Democrats, long used to being outnumbered, couldn't help but note -- and perhaps gloat over a little.
''Certainly, we would have liked to have had our caucus on a night with clear skies and dry pavement,'' said Mike Gaughan, the state Democratic Party's executive director. ''The Republicans had that advantage and still came in about half as many people.''
Republicans are expressing satisfaction with their turnout. Christian Morgan, the state GOP's executive director, said no one knew what to expect Saturday. The GOP prepared for as many as 35,000 voters but realistically expected between 10,000 and 20,000, he said.
Neither party has had a competitive caucus in Kansas in at least 20 years.
''We had no idea,'' Morgan acknowledged. ''It was a shot in the dark.''
The two parties' caucus days had far different tones, as well.
Democrats faced questions about how well they'd prepared because their crowds overwhelmed some sites, and prospective voters waited in long lines in cold weather. There weren't enough chairs in some packed halls, and crowds supporting Barack Obama and rival Hillary Rodham Clinton chanted slogans back and forth.
Republicans had overflow crowds in some venues too, but they moved quietly and swiftly to adjacent rooms. Lines moved efficiently.
Traditionally, higher numbers in GOP contests is a given in Kansas. Nearly 761,000 voters are registered Republicans. There are about 438,000 Democrats, and even the number of unaffiliated voters is a little higher than that.
But no presidential candidate in either party put as much effort into the state as Obama, who won the Democratic caucuses easily.
Mike Huckabee, the easy winner of the GOP caucus, mobilized volunteers and abortion opponents, Obama's campaign had 20 paid staffers in Kansas. Obama also had the endorsement of Gov. Kathleen Sebelius -- and she taped a television commercial for him.
''It's the dog-and-pony show that Obama and Sebelius got going on right now,'' Morgan said. ''Obama's rockin' right now, but he has not faced the Republican machine.''
Bob Beatty, a Washburn University political scientist, said national conservative commentators' criticisms of McCain on the eve of the Kansas caucuses probably suppressed turnout, as negative television ads or campaigns tend to do. McCain is the presumed GOP nominee based on his wide lead in the race for GOP National Convention delegates, but Huckabee bested him by a margin of more than 2-to-1.
Beatty also said many supporters of Mitt Romney likely stayed home after Romney suspended his campaign Thursday.
When the turnouts are considered as percentages of the total number of voters registered with each party, the difference seems starker. The Democratic turnout was equal to 8.5 percent of the voters who registered with the party. The figure for Republicans was 2.6 percent.
''This is an exciting election year,'' Beatty said. ''I just thought it was a little surprising that the Republicans -- more Republicans -- didn't want to get out there and caucus.''
Gaughan's theory was simple: Democrats are more excited about their candidates than Republicans are about theirs.
''The narrative I think that is playing out in state after state is that Democrats are just far more motivated by the quality of their candidates,'' he said.
Morgan said Democrats benefitted from a race involving two ''rock stars,'' with Obama appealing to many young voters.
''Everybody sees a fresh face,'' he said. ''All these college people are really pumped up who probably aren't going to show up in November. It's one of those things that it's really interesting to watch.''
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